O-blog-dee-o-blog-da

By Melanie Nathan, Nov 26, 2025

While we are focused on the Epstein Files – The Vacuum Trump Created: How U.S. Disengagement from Africa Strengthened China and Russia and Weakened America’s Global Standing 

When historians look back at the geopolitical shifts of the 2020s, they will not see them as accidents or inevitabilities. They will trace a direct line between deliberate U.S. withdrawal from Africa and the accelerated rise of China and Russia across the continent. History will show the racist motivation, and ignorance mixed with incompetence – a dangerous recipe for extreme harm:  By pulling influence, interests, and longstanding development and security commitments out of Africa, Donald Trump did not merely “recalibrate” U.S. foreign policy—he ceded one of the most strategically significant regions of the world to geopolitical rivals. The consequences have been profound: diminished American trade leverage, weakened diplomatic influence, the collapse of decades of USAID presence in key sectors, and a historic retreat from global leadership exemplified by the United States’ effective disengagement from the G20 Compact with Africa and other multilateral forums.

The result is stark and undeniable: Trump’s Africa policy did not put America first. It put America behind.

Africa Is the Global Future—And the U.S. Walked Away From It

Africa is not a peripheral arena in global politics; it is the world’s fastest-growing region. By 2050, one in four humans will be African. The continent hosts the largest untapped mineral reserves, a rapidly expanding consumer market, and strategic maritime chokepoints essential for global trade. Any nation that wishes to remain globally relevant must invest in long-term partnerships on the continent.

The Trump administration did the opposite. It systematically deprioritized Africa, treating it as a zone of “non-essential interests,” reducing diplomatic engagement, leaving ambassadorships vacant for years, slashing USAID missions, and pulling out of critical multilateral commitments. While the Biden administration has attempted to rebuild, U.S. credibility and presence remain weakened, because influence, once lost, is not easily regained.

And while Washington retreated, China and Russia surged into the vacuum.

Trade: The U.S. Abandoned the Fastest-Growing Market on Earth

For decades, Africa has represented one of America’s most promising trade frontiers. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), established in 2000, expanded U.S.–Africa trade by allowing tariff-free access to American markets for thousands of African products. At its peak, AGOA helped generate hundreds of thousands of African jobs, stabilized regional economies, and opened new import and export channels for U.S. businesses.

Rather than modernize and expand AGOA, the Trump administration destabilized its reliability. It threatened to terminate or renegotiate AGOA preferences unpredictably, withdrew from bilateral trade negotiations already underway,  cut diplomatic staffing responsible for trade and investment, and pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, weakening global trade norms that indirectly supported American competitiveness. Worse, Trump’s trade war with China indirectly pushed many African states to deepen their dependence on Beijing, whose Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) filled the void with massive infrastructure loans, railway projects, mineral extraction deals, and technology partnerships.

While the U.S. lectured African governments, China built ports, highways, and digital networks. In sum, U.S. trade presence eroded precisely as African economies grew the fastest.

USAID Retrenchment: The U.S. Dismantled Its Most Powerful Soft-Power Tool

USAID has been the backbone of American engagement in Africa for 60 years. Its work in public health, governance, agriculture, humanitarian relief, gender-based violence, and human rights is not charity but rather it is strategic diplomacy, stabilizing societies, building goodwill, and preventing the rise of extremist groups, including Islamists,  and authoritarian influence. The Trump administration slashed USAID’s budget by up to 30% annually, closed or downsized missions across East, West, and Central Africa, halted or froze humanitarian and development funds. He imposed “America First” restrictions that hampered long-standing local partnerships and reduced PEPFAR and global health funding that had kept millions of Africans alive.

These cuts were so severe that Congress, Republican and Democrat alike, had to intervene multiple times to restore funding. But by then, the damage was done.

In many countries Ethiopia, Uganda, Mozambique, Ghana, Zambia, USAID’s retrenchment created immediate vacuums that China, Russia, Turkey, and Gulf states were eager to fill. China expanded digital surveillance and infrastructure partnerships; Russia deepened military support through Wagner and state-backed contractors; Gulf nations accelerated land and agribusiness acquisitions.

USAID’s retreat weakened health systems, food security programs, anti-corruption efforts, and civil-society protections in dozens of African states, systems we the American taxpayer had invested in for decades.

Once local actors turn to other partners, they will not turn back…

The G20 and Multilateral Withdrawal: Trump Pulled the U.S. Out of the Room Where Global Decisions Are Made

This past week we saw Trump snub the G20 in South Africa, the latter one of the most consequential arenas of U.S. retreat. The G20 Compact with Africa and similar multilateral frameworks under Obama, where the U.S. was central to global economic coordination, debt relief, climate financing, and investment in emerging markets blew up. The Compact with Africa, launched under the German G20 presidency, was designed to modernize African economies, attract investment, and improve governance. The U.S. is out! Trump’s administration treated these initiatives with open disdain by refusing to attend in South Africa, refusing to fund American commitments, blocking joint statements and agreements.  The U.S. under the Trump regime has deprioritized Africa in G20 diplomacy.

Lest we fail to note that the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement and undermined global climate financing crucial to African resilience. As the U.S. disengaged, China stepped in as both financier and political partner. Russia, meanwhile, increased its military-security deals, particularly in Sahel states experiencing democratic backsliding and islamist coups. The U.S. once held undisputed leadership in global economic governance. Under Trump, it forfeited that leadership, certainly on Africa.

Security: U.S. Withdrawal Enabled Russia’s Militarized Expansion

Trump repeatedly signaled a desire to withdraw American troops from Africa and reduce security cooperation with regional forces fighting extremist groups such as al-Shabaab, Boko Haram, and ISIS affiliates. This restructuring disrupted intelligence networks, weakened counterterrorism efforts, and created openings for Russia’s Wagner Group. The consequences were immediate: Wagner established bases in Mali, Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic. Russia gained mining rights, arms contracts, and political influence. Democratic institutions weakened as military juntas partnered with Moscow.  A strong U.S. security presence had long acted as a deterrent to authoritarian entrenchment and extremist growth. Trump’s abrupt pullbacks signaled abandonment, and African governments sought alternative partners.

When America left, Russia arrived.

Diplomacy: Vacant Ambassadorships, Insults, and Neglect

Under Trump, the U.S. treated African leaders as afterthoughts. Diplomatically, the damage was extraordinary: Nearly a third of U.S. ambassadorships to Africa are vacant. Trump has referred to African nations with vulgar slurs and insulted leaders. Policy engagement is sporadic and superficial. Diplomacy is not symbolic; it is the infrastructure of influence, and he has f’cked it. Leaving posts vacant is the geopolitical equivalent of turning out the lights.

China, will continue to expand its embassies, trade missions, and political networks at double speed.

The Consequences: A Weaker America in a Stronger China–Russia Africa

Trump’s withdrawal does not merely “shift” Africa’s alliances; it accelerates a reorientation that may define the next century. Today: China controls or finances large portions of Africa’s infrastructure; Russian political and military influence has reshaped governance in the Sahel; the U.S. is no longer viewed as a consistent partner – how can trust ever be rebuilt? American businesses lost early access to booming African markets – and screws our economy; Democracies  are weakened while authoritarian models gained prestige – ironically a mirror image of what a King trump seeks for the U.S.A.

In a world where influence is the currency of power, the U.S. allowed its balance to be spent by others.

The Cost of Retreat Is Greater Than the Cost of Engagement: Africa is the geopolitical fulcrum of the 21st century. Disengaging from it is not only shortsighted; it is strategically catastrophic. Trump’s retreat from USAID, trade frameworks, multilateral commitments like the G20 Compact with Africa, and security partnerships did not save money, did not enhance American power, and did not strengthen U.S. national interests. It weakened them. By ceding economic, diplomatic, and security spaces to China and Russia, the U.S. forfeited decades of strategic investment. Rebuilding trust and influence will take years, perhaps decades, and even then the United States may never regain the foothold it once had. Trump marketed his policies as “America First.” In Africa, they were “America Absent.”

And the world is living with consequences that only history will ever speak truth to –

From my perspective as a country-conditions expert for LGBTQI+ asylum seekers, the geopolitical vacuum left by U.S. withdrawal has had immediate and devastating human consequences. For years, U.S. embassies, USAID missions, and conditional diplomacy functioned as critical guardrails serving as a restraint for the most extreme forms of anti-LGBTQI+ state action across the continent. When Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni signed the 2023 Anti-Homosexuality Act—widely known as the Kill the Gays Bill—and called on African leaders to “save the world from homosexuality,” African governments understood that open persecution could jeopardize vital relationships with Washington. That guardrail has collapsed. With the United States stepping back, leaders face fewer consequences for targeting LGBTQI+ people, and we now see countries like Burkina Faso criminalizing homosexuality for the first time, while Kenya, Ghana, and others advance harsher anti-gay legislation and increasingly violent persecutory climates. The erosion of U.S. engagement has not only shifted global power, it has emboldened a continent-wide rollback of LGBTQI+ rights and exposed millions to new levels of danger.

Side note:
I am planning my next article – racist motives and  where this can lead. I am still building the strength I need to write it…… sigh!

Melanie Nathan
commissionermnathan@gmail.com

Melanie Nathan, Executive Director of African Human Rights Coalition is a qualified country of origin expert witness in the United States and global immigration courts, providing expert written country conditions  reports and testimony for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex, non-binary, LGBTQI + asylum seekers from African Countries.