The following analysis is attributed to Alex גדעון בן װעלװל @JewishWonk VIA X (Twitter) thread,
I have taken the thread directly from X, to extrapolate as a read for those who are not on X (formerly twitter) and to be of use to our Private Facebook Group, Jewish Woman for Kamala Harris (#JW4KH- 18,000 member Private facebook Group). This analysis by ALEX helps to critically think through and analyze the past years which included a Trump administration and a Biden administration, while contemplating the election of Kamala Harris to the Presidency of the United States.
What is clear is it is 2024 and not 2016. We know a lot and a lot has happened. My hope is that Israelis and Jewish Americans who continue to support Trump read this to ensure a full understanding of the impact of Trump to Israel, past and moving forward. This is a MUST read and puts into view that which I have tried to do so cryptically: In a nutshell a destabilized world is not good for Israel. An autocratic America with isolationist policy is not good for Israel.
In public and in private I have gotten the question “Is Harris really better for Israel than Trump?” The short answer is yes. The long answer is incoming in the below thread.
When it comes to foreign affairs, what we are observing is a complex interplay of different factors, players, priorities, etc…Very often the discussion about Trump and Israel is reduced to “well he moved the embassy and said nice things about Israel.”
Trump’s first term policy towards Israel was a mixed bag.
Yes, he recognized that Israel’s capital is where it has been since 1949.
He also advanced diplomatic recognition between Israel and various Arab states, smashing a foreign policy consensus that existed since the 90s.
In so doing Trump advanced a core U.S. interest of strengthening countries friendly to America in the Middle East by binding them closer together. The stronger the alliances are across the Middle East, the less the U.S. has to be involved.
But it came at a cost as well.
The Trump administration achieved these accords in part by undermining the international system that America is the chief architect of. A system that was built to reduce the likelihood of another great power conflict like WW2.
That deal involved the U.S. recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara region. It involved taking Sudan off the state sponsor list of terrorism.
In short, a lot of giveaways and a lot of bad precedents that bad actors in the international system exploit.
Now one could argue that Trump in doing such things may have harmed the international system, but it was on net good for Israel.
That argument works on the surface level, but it does not stand up to scrutiny. I’ll explain why.
The same tools available to Trump when he recognized Moroccan claims over disputed territory or when he recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan are available to the enemies of America and Israel.
Most notably Russia and China.
Trump’s opposition to the international system benefits China and Russia more than it benefits Israel, which is firmly integrated into the western sphere through politics, military relationships, trade, culture, travel, etc…
Alex גדעון בן װעלװל
To see what I mean: Trump consistently toed the line for Russia when it came to Syria. Russian forces, operating in Syria since 2015, were able to continue their consolidation in support of their clients Assad, Iran, and Hezbollah.
Russia has also not shied away from Hamas.
Trump’s love for Russia even in his first time compromised Israeli security. For example, Trump disclosed highly classified intelligence to Russian officials during a White House meeting in 2017.
The source of that intelligence? Israel.
What Trump offers in a second term between his economic policies and his foreign affairs views would be extremely destabilizing for the entire international system. Israel is a small country. It is not shielded from global forces in trade, migration, & war through nice words.
What does Trump offer in foreign affairs? He opposes NATO. He supports Russia in its war with Ukraine. He does not back Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression.
The end result of such policies is more war, more people fleeing war, more disruptions to trade, and a poorer planet.
Israel will not be immune to such forces anymore than it was immune to the inflation that came with COVID disruptions or with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Israel’s biggest trading partners are also in Europe, which will likely see more conflict if NATO is no longer relevant.
The international system is very hard for most people to grasp. Particularly how fragile it is and how much their lives and that of their loved ones in a small country like Israel will be impacted should you see the system erode.
Fine.
Let’s focus on Iran.
I was a critic of the Obama-era deal between the U.S. and Iran to limit their nuclear program. In particular the following:
-Sunset provisions (i.e., the deal expires)
-A weak inspections regime (24 days notice!)
-Ignoring Iranian ballistic missile development
-Sanctions relief
The Trump administration’s response to these failures was not to negotiate a new deal that got better terms for the west and implicitly improved Israel’s security and regional stability.
It was to just blow up the deal and replace it with nothing.
How did Iran respond?
Iran began to breach the terms of JCPOA while Trump was president.
-They stockpiled enriched uranium beyond the 202-kilogram limit
-Resumed uranium enrichment to 20 percent
-Restarted uranium enrichment at Fordo
The trend can be seen here. It happened under his watch.
The sanctions Trump put in place certainly made life more difficult for the Iranian regime and for the average Iranian, but it did not meaningfully change Iranian foreign policy in any way.
Iran continued to fund Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, and militias in Iraq.
Most importantly, Iran continued to develop its land bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria under Trump’s watch.
The Israelis fought back against this on their own while Trump was leaking their intelligence sources to Iran’s sponsor, Russia.
While Russian and Iranian interests in Syria are not identical, they are complimentary enough that both nations forces operate in the country.
Trump, a friend of Russia’s, has and will implicitly aid Iran’s objectives in Syria, whether he understands it or not.
·
Fine, Trump does things that may destabilize the international system and side with Russia in ways that hurt key Israeli interests in places like the Golan, but what does a Harris administration offer?
First, Harris is a member of the current administration. While there have been some arguments between the U.S. and Israel, the U.S. has backed Israel militarily, diplomatically, and economically during one of the worst periods in Israeli history.
You can expect more of this.
Those efforts have seen repeated explosive events, like direct Iranian attacks on Israel, which threaten to turn a local war into a regional war, responded to with American and allied military force to keep Israel safe and keep the war in Gaza contained.
Many took this for granted, but they should not have. There is no precedent in Israeli history for other countries coming to its defense militarily as the U.S., UK, and Jordan did after Iranian missiles were fired at Israel’s largest population centers.
That event also saw the U.S. securing intelligence from Gulf Arab states and relaying it to Israel so that Israel could bolster its own defenses ahead of that attack.
Again, no precedent in Israeli history for such support from anyone, including the U.S.
There is no reason to believe that a Harris administration would do anything less. In fact, the chatter about who will staff key foreign policy positions in a Harris administration is already underway. Names that come up? Ones that are known hawks against China, Russia, & Iran.
Much of the anxiety on this issue rests in Republican framings, which amount to “anything Netanyahu wants to do is pro-Israel.”
Benjamin Netanyahu is not Israel. He is 74 years old and more popular with Republicans in Congress than he is in Israel.
One day he won’t be Prime Minister.
Netanyahu during this was in Gaza has refused to develop a vision for what a post-Hamas Gaza looks like. This is not good for Israeli security in the short or long term. A lack of vision leads to a vacuum. A vacuum leads to Hamas’s resurgence.
You don’t have to believe me on this point, because Israel’s Defense Minister, a member of Netanyahu’s own Likud party, has publicly criticized Netanyahu for this.
https://jewishinsider.com/2024/05/yoav-gallant-benjamin-netanyahu-israel-gaza-day-after/
A Harris administration can do what a Trump administration is incapable of: help Israel formulate a vision for a post-Hamas Gaza and provide the diplomatic and economic support to ensure it is followed through.
The Biden-Harris administration is already making progress on that front, securing a public commitment from Egypt. It is currently engaging in diplomacy to get Bahrain, the UAE, and perhaps the Saudis to commit to securing Gaza after the war.
All of this is pie in the sky until it happens, but the point is that a Harris admin would think through outcomes and take Israel’s security needs into consideration when pursuing its foreign policy.
Trump would say nice things about Israel and leave it messes to deal with.
Optics is always front and center in an election, but if your top issue is Israel and American support for Israel then you need to be taking it more seriously than soundbites, slogans, and optics.
Real choices will be made. Real lives are on the line. Trump offers them chaos.
Thank you to Alex גדעון בן װעלװל @JewishWonk for the clarity
NOTE JEWISH WOMEN FOR KAMALA CALL FEATURING BARBARA STREISAND, AND a lot of JEWISH WOMEN LEADERS:
HERE.
Posted by Melanie Nathan, 8/5/24
#jw4kh
jw4khGroup@gmail.com
O-blog-dee-o-blog-da 
thank you for the insight you share. Doing my best to ensure a Harris victory for all of us.